Category : A Collection of Games for DOS and Windows
Archive   : NFL91.ZIP
Filename : NFL.DOC

 
Output of file : NFL.DOC contained in archive : NFL91.ZIP



NFL_1991


1.0 INTRODUCTION

NFL_1991 is a menu driven windows application that will allow you
to predict, track, and update NFL football games. The 1991 NFL
game schedule per week is stored within the NFL.DAT data file. The
file also contains estimates of the offensive / defensive scoring
strengths of each of the teams. The initial offensive/defensive
ratings for each team are based on the combined scores of all 1990
regular season and playoff games. As the season wears on, and you
use the program to enter 1991 pre-season and regular season games,
the ratings estimates and actual game scores are saved in NFL.DAT
every time you choose to update its databases.

The program offers you three main options: Update, Predict, or
Display. Each week, it will take about two or three minutes to
enter Sunday's game scores. The program then updates its estimates
of each teams offensive and defensive ratings and is immediately
ready to predict next week's scheduled games or any "what if" game
you are curious about. You can immediately see the new NFC and
AFC conference standings without waiting for Monday mornings'
sports page or the evening news.

The program is very simple to describe. It's colorful, and it's
fun. Playing with it sure beats mowing the grass on Sunday after-
noon, or thinking about work I should've done this weekend. I
started running an early version of this program during the 1982
season - a Franklin 1000, Apple Basic and a green 25x40 Elephant
monitor. MS-DOS, "C", and color windows certainly are more fun.

Again, the program is very simple. It processes game scores and
maintains a simple, two parameter database on each team. The data
can be used to predict the outcome of next week's games. Based on
statistics, the program should predict 70% of the games correctly
between now and infinity. Typically, over the last nine seasons,
the predictions have been pretty consistent in picking 9 to 10 winners
per week out of 14 games. For three years, I tried some pretty
sophisticated, numerical analysis techniques to improve the accuracy.
I tracked team performance, in terms of offensive and defensive
ratings, as a function of whether the teams were on the road or at
home. I tried Dow-Jones type time series analysis - moving averages
and weighted moving averages based on the last two weeks, three weeks,
four weeks ... nine weeks, etc. By the time I was done, I had
"successfully" lowered my prediction rate to low sixties. The more
complicated I made the model or the more parameters I added for
model sophistication, the worse I did. Finally, I gave up and went
back to the two parameter model - how does each team perform, offen-
sively and defensively, relative to the average NFL team performance
of 21 points scored per game.

Over the course of a season, NFL teams average 21 points scored per
game. And typically, a team that puts 28 points on the board
per week and limits the other guy to 14 points per week generally
comes out ahead of the team that puts 14 points on the board while
giving up 28 points. In simple terms, that's the line taken by
the predictions.

When you stop and think about all the sophisticated statistics the
commentators quote, they don't really do any better. Average points
scored on the road in the fourth quarter - percentage of third down
conversions - turnover ratio - number of real blonde cheerleaders
between the 20-40 yardline markers. Statistically, the best team
seems to win about 70% of the time - the rest of the time, it's a
crap shoot. And there's always one week per season when almost every
favored team loses.


2.0 HOW IT WORKS

NFL_1991 begins by reading the NFL.DAT data file from disk into
memory. After that, all predictions and updates to team rankings
and team ratings occur only in memory, unless the user elects to
apply the updates to the diskfile NFL.DAT. (This way, my wife can
enter that her beloved Chicago Bears really should have beat the
Giants 95-2 and see how they would have come out against the 49-ers,
without messing up my databases - as long as she answers "No" when
the programs asks whether or not to update NFL.DAT.) The main menu
has three choices: Update, Display, or Predict.


3.0 UPDATE

There are four options listed on the Update menu:

Single game
Weekly games
Revise [scores]
New 1991 season

3.1 Single game

Two windows open. One contains a numbered list of all NFL teams.
The other contains a two line form which prompts for the two teams
(by number) and their scores. After entering the game score, the
the user is prompted about whether to apply the update to NFL.DAT.
Either way, the same data arrays in memory are updated with respect
to offensive and defensive ratings. This mode of update is designed
for use in pre-season games and post-season games. It should NOT
be used for regular season scheduled games. For that reason, team
win-loss-tie records and NFC/AFC conference standings are not updated
as a result of single game entry, even if you choose to apply the
updates to NFL.DAT. Pre-season and post-season games outcomes do
not effect team standings within the conference divisions. Only the
team offensive / defensive ratings are updated. These are the data
elements that are used to predict subsequent game outcomes. Pre-season
and post-season games do not effect team standings within conference
divisions.

3.2 Weekly games

A window opens to present a form listing the entire week's scheduled
games. The cursor positions automatically to game #1 - team #1's
score. After all or part of a week's games have been entered, you
are prompted about whether to apply the updates to NFL.DAT. Any
score of "0" to "0" or "blank" to "blank" is always ignored. NFC/AFC
conference standings, team offensive/defensive ratings, and win/loss
records are updated based on the entered game scores.

3.3 Revise [scores]

Oooops! You can always correct scores for any regular season or post
season game score that was entered incorrectly. (There's no way my
software did that!) A tiny window opens and prompts the you for "What
week?" After that, that week's recorded scores are displayed in a
"Weekly games" type form. You can correct any or all of the previously
entered scores. When the form has been completed, the program offers
the usual prompt about whether to update NFL.DAT.

Any time this option is invoked and scores are updated, the program
automatically "replays" all subsequent game weeks and updates the
ratings and rankings by reapplying all game outcomes in the correct
chronological order.

3.4 New 1991 season

If all else fails, you can always throw away all previously entered
game data and start the whole 1991 season over from week #1. For
safety's sake, this choice requires a confirmation. There's no
recovery from a YES unless you have saved or renamed a copy of
NFL.DAT beforehand.


4.0 DISPLAY

There are five options listed on the Display menu:

Results
NFC Standings
AFC Standings
Ratings
Schedules

4.1 Results

A window opens and offers you four options for reviewing the scores
for previous games:

Specific Week - all scores for games played the week
you specify are displayed

Forward from First Week - scores are displayed for all week #1
games, then week #2 games, ... , all the way to the last week

Backward from Last Week - scores are displyed from last week,
then the previous week, ... , all the way to week #1

Playoffs - any post-season scores that you have
entered are displayed.

4.2 NFC Standings

A window opens and displays the current win-loss-tie records of all
NFC teams for the East, Central, and West Divisions. Home and away
records are displayed as well.

4.3 AFC Standings

A window opens and displays the current win-loss-tie records of all
AFC teams for the East, Central, and West Divisions. Home and away
records are displayed as well.

4.4 Ratings

A window opens and displays the program's estimates of the relative
strengths of all 28 NFL teams by adding the offensive and defensive
ratings. Highest number total is the best. These are the numbers
that are juggled when you ask for a single game or weekly games
prediction.

4.5 Schedules

A window opens and displays the list of games scheduled for next
weekend. Then answer Y or N to the question about whether or not
you want to see additional weeks' schedules.


5.0 PREDICT

There are only two options listed on the Predict menu:

Single Game
Weekly Games

5.1 Single Game

Two windows open. One contains a numbered list of all NFL teams.
The other contains a two line form which prompts for the two teams.
You enter the two teams by number and the program displays the
estimated outcome based on the current offense/defense ratings in
memory. This mode of prediction is designed for use in pre-season
and post-season games.

5.2 Weekly Games

A window opens and displays the predicted outcomes of all next
weekend's scheduled games based on the current offense/defense
ratings in memory. Obviously, this mode is designed for regular
season games.


6.0 The Windows and Menus

I hope navigating the menus is totally obvious. Forward navigation
is based on the key for the highlighted menu item, or
entry of the first letter of a menu item. The up/down arrow keys
wrap the menu from top to bottom or vice versa. Backward menu
navigation, exit, and quitting out of forms relies entirely on the
key. If you out of a form before it is complete,
any data you entered is thrown away.

The software was developed in MicroSoft Quick "C", version 2.5.
All the windowing and forms data entry software is based on an
outstanding shareware package:

The Window BOSS and Data Clerk, version 6.0 by
Philip A. Mongelluzzo

Star Guidance Consulting, Inc.
273 Windy Drive
Waterbury, Connecticut 06705

(203) 574-2449

Thanks, Phil. This is the only shareware package I've found that
I actually enjoy using. For once, I never even wished I had time
to write a better package myself that would actually do what I
need to do. You already did!


7.0 STRATEGY OF USE

The version of NFL.DAT that comes with the program reflect the out-
come of all 1990 regular season and post season games all the way
through the Buffalo-New York Giants SuperBowl XXV.

Obviously, player retirements, trades, and college draft choices as
well as coaching changes will effect next season. But, usually the
first two or three pre-season games are "don't care" games where
the coaching staffs are just trying to size up their newcomers and
walk-ons before they have to start cutting down incrementally to
the final 44-45 man roster. Personally, I recommend NOT using the
program and NOT updating NFL.DAT until the last two or three pre-
season games. Use single game predictions and single game updates
for the final weeks of pre-season. Then go for it. My experience
is that it takes about five weeks total for the program to get a
pretty good handle on the teams - say - the last three pre-season
and the first two regular weekend games. From then on, what you see
is what you get. The program had its best performance predicting
winners in weeks 10 through 17. Note, however, that I started with
an NFL.DAT that said all teams were equal at 21+21=42 for offense and
defense ratings.

7.1 Post-Season Use

After the regular season is complete, use
mode to predict the outcome of each week's WildCard and other playoff
games. Obviously, I don't know the playoff schedule. But, the program
is smart enough, if you use it properly, to recognize that game results
you enter via , AFTER the last regular season week
has been updated, are Post_Season games scores. The first eleven games
scores you enter AFTER regular season is over, are saved and recognized
as Post-Season game results. This is done so that you can use
and
for playoff games. However, there is no artificial
intelligence here. The first 11 (eleven) games you enter are saved.
That's it.

7.2 Ties

The program crunches integer Offense/Defense rating numbers. Some games
come out as predicted ties. With NFL overtimes, this will almost never
occur. But, in the NFL, the home team wins slightly more than 60% of
the time. Therefore, the program adds one point to the home team score
for all predicted ties as a "tie-breaker."


8.0 LICENSE AGREEMENT

No part of this computer program may be reproduced, transmitted,
transcribed, stored in a retrieval system, or translated into
any language in any form or by any means, except as described in the
following license aggreement, without obtaining the express prior
written consent of Thomas C. Kerr.

The use of NFL_1991 is subject to the following terms and conditions:

8.1 Title to Licensed Software

Title to the licensed software program is not transferred to the end user.
The end user is granted an exclusive license to use the software on a
SINGLE computer or computer workstation.

8.2 Copyright Protection

NFL_1991 is a copyrighted cumputer program. It is protected by the copy-
right laws of the United States as well as by international law. You may
not make any changes or modifications to NFL_1991. You may not decompile,
dissassemble, or otherwise reverse engineer the computer program. Usage
of NFL_1991 implies your agreement and acceptance of the terms and condi-
tions of this license agreement.

8.3 Limited Warranty

Thomas C. Kerr warrants only that the magnetic media on which the NFL_1991
computer program is recorded and the limited documentation provided with
it are free from defects in materials and workmanship under normal use.
Thomas C. Kerr does not warrant that the licensed software will meet your
requirements or that the operation of the software will be uninterrupted
or error-free. The limited warranty does not cover any copy of the
computer program which has been altered or changed in any way. Further,
the warranty does not cover any media or documentation which has been
subjected to abuse or damage by you or others.

ANY IMPLITED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR
FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE ARE LIMITED TO THE TERM OF EXPRESS
WARRANTIES. Some states do not allow limitations on how long an implied
warranty last; so the above limitation may not apply to you. The
warranties set forth above are in lieu of any and all other express
and/or implied warranties, whether oral, written, or implied, and the
remedies set forth above are the sole and exclusive remedies.

8.4 Limitation of Liability

Thomas C. Kerr is not responsible for any problems or damage caused by
using the licensed software. This includes, but is not limited to,
computer hardware, computer software, operating systems, and any compu-
ter or computing accessories. End users agree to hold Thomas C. Kerr
blameless for any problems arising from use of NFL_1991.

Thomas C. Kerr SHALL NOT IN ANY CASE BE LIABLE FOR ANY SPECIAL,
INCIDENTAL, CONSEQUENTIAL, INDIRECT, OR OTHER SIMILAR DAMAGES ARISING
FROM ANY BREACH OF THE WARRANTIES EVEN IF THOMAS C. KERR HAS BEEN
ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES. Some states do not allow
the exclusion or limitation of incidental or consequential damages;
so the above limitation may not apply to you.

In no case shall Thomas C. Kerr's liability exceed the license fees
paid for the right to use NFL_1991.

8.5 Other

Operators of electronic bulletin board systems may post the shareware
version of NFL_1991 for downloading by their users without written
permission only as long as the above conditions are met.

9.0 CAVEAT

Do not use this program for gambling or betting. It just is not that
good. If it could consistently beat the line, I'd have already done
it, made my fortune, and retired. And you'd still be scanning the
bulletin boards for something else to download. I wrote it for fun.
You use that way.









  3 Responses to “Category : A Collection of Games for DOS and Windows
Archive   : NFL91.ZIP
Filename : NFL.DOC

  1. Very nice! Thank you for this wonderful archive. I wonder why I found it only now. Long live the BBS file archives!

  2. This is so awesome! 😀 I’d be cool if you could download an entire archive of this at once, though.

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